admin January 7, 2019

A previously delayed Brexit showdown looms as U.K. lawmakers return from a holiday recess ahead of a vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan scheduled for Jan. 15, according to news reports.

May’s plan still faces heavy opposition, but there are several potential ways the Brexit story could unspool in coming weeks.

Opinion: Why you should avoid stocks until after the Brexit deadline

The chart below offers four scenarios and describes how they could affect the British pound

GBPUSD, +0.3694%

U.K. stocks, as measured by the FTSE 100 Index

UKX, -0.39%

 and U.K. government bonds

TMBMKGB-10Y, -1.55%


May’s deal, which she struck with the European Union in November, was initially meant to be voted on in December, but May postponed the vote at the last minute to avoid defeat. She also survived a leadership challenge from her own ranks in December, but that doesn’t mean that she is out of the woods politically, as the chart shows.

Meanwhile, May has lobbied EU leaders to offer assurances, particularly on the controversial “backstop” arrangement dictating the treatment of the Irish border.

Opinion: Brexit’s aura of inevitability is vanishing

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