admin June 22, 2018


Keep one eye on oil and the other on the Dow today, where much is riding on how well investors can summon some appetite for buying after a tough week for stocks.

If the Dow stretches its losing streak to nine sessions, that would match the longest such run since 1978, according to the WSJ Market Data Group. The broader index may just escape that fate, thanks to climbing oil prices, and it’s certainly looking chipper today — though that hard-to-call OPEC meeting could quickly turn things on a dime.

Staying positive these days is tough — it is summer and an election year, and those trade-war flies are getting harder and harder to swat away. But as investors keep pulling money out of stocks, that may make it the perfect time to dive in, says our call of the day from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The bank’s Bull & Bear Indicator has hit a two-year low and is “moving toward a summer buy signal,” say those strategists in the latest “Flow Show” update for clients. Here’s that gauge, which made it all the way over to “extreme bullish” in February.



The above gauge is at 2.9, leaning toward “extreme bearish.” The bank says watch for these buy triggers: further outflows from riskier assets; a clear break in the S&P 500 below the key 2,650 level; and weak June payrolls data that could “take a Fed hike or two off the table.”

Wall Street veteran Byron Wien says he does indeed expect his bullish view to be tested this summer, owing to midterms and a historically painful July for stocks.

“The summer months may be rough, but we are optimistic for year-end and stick with our S&P 500 target of 3,000,” Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone’s private wealth solutions group, tells investors in an update.

Note, though, that Wien said basically the same basic thing last summer — hang on and shoot for 3,000. Last year, the S&P ended at 2,673.61 with a 19.4% gain for the year.

The market

Dow












YMU8, +0.43%










S&P 500












ESU8, +0.44%










and Nasdaq futures












NQU8, +0.32%










 are showing signs of a rebound. On Thursday, the Dow












DJIA, -0.80%










logged its eighth-straight loss, the S&P












SPX, -0.63%










 had its biggest drop since May 31 and the Nasdaq












COMP, -0.88%










notched its biggest one-day percentage fall since April 24.

Greece












GD, +1.08%










 is leading the way higher in Europe












SXXP, +0.77%










 on a deal that will help end its bailout. Asia












ADOW, +0.05%











ADOW, +0.05%










saw a mostly weaker session.














ADOW, +0.05%










U.S. crude












CLU8, +1.42%










 and Brent












LCOQ8, +1.77%










 are climbing as the OPEC summit rolls on. Gold












GCU8, +0.00%










 is flat and the dollar












DXY, -0.23%










 is down.

Check out the Market Snapshot column for more.

The chart

Oil is a worthy chart of the day, as the commodity has been put through its paces recently. For the week, Brent is up just 0.5%. But it’s more than 10% higher, year to date.

MarketWatch


Crude has been climbing overnight after signs of friction between Saudi Arabia and Iran at the OPEC summit in Vienna. The Saudis and Russia — the world’s largest oil producers — have pushed for an increase in production to be agreed, with the former reportedly having floated the idea of a one-million-barrel-a-day hike among fellow OPEC members.

“Anything less than a million barrels per day is seen as supportive of prices,” said John Driscoll, chief strategist at Singapore-based JTD Energy.

But, after showing some signs of warming to the idea, Iran set its face against an output hike, reportedly saying the technical discussions were “not good.”

Now the horse-trading really begins, with the decision on deal or no deal expected Saturday.

Read: What time is the OPEC meeting?

Opinion: The politics of the Middle East aren’t just about religion any more

The buzz

Red Hat












RHT, -2.06%










shares are tanking after the software maker put out a gloomy outlook.

PayPal












PYPL, +0.02%










 continues its acquisition streak, buying a fraud prevention startup for $120 million. Meanwhile, Amazon












AMZN, -1.13%










eBay












EBAY, -3.18%










and Etsy












ETSY, -1.38%










 sellers are holding their breath over an internet tax ruling that could make their lives pretty tough.

On the persistent trade-war beat, today’s the day the EU has promised to start placing tariffs on $3.2 billion worth of goods from the U.S. That’s in response to U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel imports. Agricultural goods and other U.S. products will also be hit with levies.

Greece’s eurozone partners on Friday cleared the way for the country to exit its third bailout program in August, to end an eight-year stretch of financial help. But that may not be the end of the drama.

Meanwhile, Apple












AAPL, -0.56%










 supplier Foxconn












601138, +3.03%










 told shareholders Friday that its biggest challenge is dealing with the potential U.S.-China trade war.

Tesla












TSLA, -4.06%










 will close more than a dozen solar installation facilities across nine states, as part of job cuts announced last week. Meanwhile, a battle between Tesla and a former employee continues to heat up.

Walt Disney












DIS, -1.18%










 -owned ABC has announced a “Roseanne” spinoff, but won’t be bringing the fired leading lady back.

Read: How AMC’s new subscription service compares to MoviePass and its competitors

On the economic docket, Markit manufacturing and services PMIs are due this morning.

Random reads

ESPN reporter finds a way around an NBA ban on draft spoilers

Some dirty rats break into ATM, eat $18,000 in cash.

Pulitzer Prize-winning conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer dead at 68

The ultimate guide to living frugally

So your child has racked up a Fortnite bill. Do this after you freak out.

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