The S&P 500 has scrambled up to just 0.8% below its January peak, sparking chatter that the bull market is definitely not over.
But the U.S. stock market isnât necessarily the place to go at this point, if youâre looking for real trading excitement. Thatâs the suggestion in our call of the day, which comes from Bank of America Merrill Lynchâs Thanos Vamvakidis.
âSterling might be the most interesting currency to trade in the next few months,â Vamvakidis told CNBC today.
Heâs referring to the British pound
, which dived to an 11-month low against the dollar yesterday after a U.K. trade official said there is a 60% chance the Brexit-bound nation will crash out of the European Union without an agreement with the bloc.
âBy early next year, either we are going to have a deal, and sterling is going way up â or we donât, and itâs going way down,â the BAML strategist said.
The pound could tumble by 10% or more on a âno-deal Brexit,â or it could surge by 10%, âif you get a deal, any deal,â Vamvakidis reckons. Gazing across FX land, he says: âI donât think any other currency can have this kind of move in the next few months.â
The U.K. is slated to leave the EU in March, and the country and soon-to-be-27-nation bloc have said they need an agreement on their future relationship by October to ensure itâs OKâd by all individual countries.
Other strategists are also talking about potential moves of 10% or more for the British currency. Rabobankâs Jane Foley reportedly predicts a drop of that magnitude could happen on a so-called hard Brexit.
Read more: Hawkish Bank of England inspires caution among pound traders
And see: A top London startupâs CEO flags the biggest Brexit threat to his industry
Key market gauges
Futures for the S&P 500
are rising. Thatâs after the S&P
and Nasdaq Composite
all advanced yesterday, handing the S&P its highest close since Jan. 29.
is gaining, after Asia mostly climbed, with Chinaâs Shanghai
up nearly 3%. Oil
are moving up, as the dollar index
is trading around $7,000.
The âtrade warâ trade is the way to go, says Saxo Bankâs Peter Garnry as he shares the chart above.
Heâs backing a basket trade that involves making a bet on U.S. stocks and shorting the markets for five countries that are especially reliant on American trade â China, Mexico, Germany, Canada and Japan.
âAs long as this basket climbs, the trade war is on,â Garnry says in a tweet. Itâs also âhow investors should be positioned.â The trade is up around 25% in the year to date, the strategist notes.
isÂ plunging in premarket action after the company late yesterday posted earnings and announced its acquisition of a mortgage lender.
appears set for a down day, too, after its earnings late yesterday, while Etsy
seems headed for a big rise.
The companies on the earnings docket ahead of the opening bell include Office Depot
Â , Discovery
Â , Dean Foods
Â , while Disney
Â , Snap
and Papa Johnâs
are expected to report after the close.
A report on job openings is on tap later this morning, then a release on consumer credit is due in the afternoon.
Check out: MarketWatchâs Economic Calendar
Voters in Ohio, Kansas, Missouri, Michigan and Washington state are due to vote today, and President Donald Trump has endorsed Kris Kobach for Kansas governor over the stateâs incumbent Republican, Jeff Colyer.
is more irresponsible than banks were in 2008, says former Trump adviser Gary Cohn, who was the COO at Goldman Sachs ten years ago. The social network is denying reports that it asked big banks to share financial data about their customers.
âLook how fast this Mendocino Complex went up in ranking. That doesnât happen. That just doesnât happen.â âScott McLean, a deputy chief with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, marvels at how the Mendocino Complex blaze has continued to grow.
The Mendocino Complex Fire has become the largest wildfire in recorded California history. It has destroyed 443 square miles, breaking the record set in December by the Thomas Fire.
A dog dressed like Paddington Bear just won Halloween, and itâs only August.
Open floor plans? Hereâs the case for rooms.
The Mustang Bullitt is steeped in Steve McQueenâs âeffortless cool.â
Andrew Luck is about to play in a game for the first time since January 2017.
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